Wimbledon 2009 minus Nadal, Who has the best chance?

Rafael Nadal, Press Conference (June 19, 2009)

Top seed Rafael Nadal withdrew from Wimbledon 2009 due to not being 100% fit to play. He said “To not play Wimbledon is one of the toughest decisions of my career”. This announcement came on Friday (June 19, 2009) evening, after the Men’s singles draw for the event had been fixed the same morning. To accommodate Nadal’s withdrawal, four changes had to be made in the Men’s draw. The seeds of the players remain the same as in the initial draw, which means, in Wimbledon 2009, there would be no player playing as seed one.

Changes made in the Men’s Singles draw:

1. 5^th seed Juan Martin Del Potro (the guy who lost to Federer in the semi-finals of the recently ended Roland Garros 2009) replaces top seed Rafael Nadal in the draw. (He still plays as the fifth seed. Just that he takes Nadal’s position in the draw)
2. 17^th seed James Blake takes 5^th seed Del Potro’s position
3. Nicolas Kiefer takes Blake’s position
4. Thiago Alves takes Kiefer’s position

Nadal’s withdrawal means an obvious advantage to Roger Federer. For the past 3 years, Nadal and Federer have met in the final match of Wimbledon (2006 to 2008). Everyone hoped to see the two clash in this year’s Wimbledon final too. So, Nadal’s exit is an obvious advantage to Federer!

Another player, with an obvious advantage is Thiago Alves (currently ranked 120^th in the world). Based on his performance in the qualifiers, he just missed being a part of Wimbledon 2009 draw. But, with Nadal’s exit, he is now part of the draw. This is the first time he gets to be part of the Wimbledon Men’s Single’s draw. A huge advantage and opportunity!

There are a few others who would have an advantage due to the re-shuffling of the draw. Following is the list of people:

Andy Murray (3): With Nadal’s withdrawal, Murray is the highest seeded player in the top half of the draw. He now has a much better chance of reaching the finals.

Novak Djokovic (4): Djokovic can now meet a top 10 seed player only past the quarter-final stage. A huge advantage!!

Andy Roddick (6): He was placed in the same section as Nadal, whom he could have faced in the quarter-finals. He now has a much better chance of reaching the semi-final stage. (Potential clash with the 5^th seed Del Potro in quarter-final)

Juan Martin Del Potro (5): Earlier, Del Potro and the 4^th seed Novak Djokovic were placed in the same section of the draw. There was a very high probability of these two meeting in the quarter-finals. With the reshuffle, Del Potro is now the highest seeded player in his section. He could now meet a higher seeded player only past the quarter-final stage. But, he could now have a tougher second round match against Lleyton Hewitt (Wimbledon 2002 champion).

Other players with an advantage are James Blake and Nicolas Kiefer. They would now potentially meet higher seeded player one round later as compared to the earlier draw.

Taking this argument forward, Nadal’s withdrawal would be an advantage to every player in the tournament. But, I have listed only the players that, in my opinion, have a significant advantage due to the draw re-shuffling. A quick re-cap of the players that have an advantage: Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro and Thiago Alves.